February 28, 2008: “I expect there will be some failures…I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks.” - Ben Bernanke
January 20, 2009: As the dawn breaks, and we stand on the threshold of a new era, hope and optimism reign supreme. Hands are being held, hugs are being exchanged, and tears are flowing, as the old is swept away, and the new is ushered in. All things are possible, we are told, and we try to feel good because people with the best intentions are now in place. “It will be different this time, we do know what to do,” they say. “Just give us a chance, after all we’re smart people, we do have the answers, and you will feel better.”
I wish you all the best, Mr. President. But unfortunately, I’ve seen this movie before, and know how it ends. My primary goal for my clients is not for them to feel better, but to make, keep, and recover money. That sometimes demands betting against you, Mr. President.
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
The More Things Change....
President-elect Obama ran on a platform of change. (Change, change, change, and more change!) So, of course, the first thing he does is surround himself with faces from the past that we all know and love! Everybody from Hilary Clinton, Tom Daschle, and now Leon Panetta. Therefore, we can probably assume that since you see the same old faces, then the approach to our current financial, economic, and political problems will be the same. Whether it’s Democratic or Republican, whether it’s Liberal or Conservative, using the same old solutions for our current problems could be a recipe for failure.
Likewise, using old-school investment techniques (buy and hold) in this day and age could also be a recipe for disaster. The math is really simple. Recently, for 2009, the analysts were predicting $80 per share for the S&P 500. With the S&P currently at approximately 900, that equates to a P/E ratio of approximately eleven, which is the normal P/E ratio for a recession. However, the latest analyst’s viewpoint is that the S&P earnings for 2009 will be approximately $40. Divide 900 by 40, and you’re looking at a P/E ratio of approximately 22. Based upon simple mathematics, and the earnings power of corporations, the stock market is overpriced by half.
Will the stock market go straight down? No. Periodically, there could be bouts of euphoria that could take this market higher. However, as long as the politicians continue the same old approach, it could make for a very difficult 2009. With that said, however, I will continue to trade the market that’s in front of me. Welcome to the New Year!
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Likewise, using old-school investment techniques (buy and hold) in this day and age could also be a recipe for disaster. The math is really simple. Recently, for 2009, the analysts were predicting $80 per share for the S&P 500. With the S&P currently at approximately 900, that equates to a P/E ratio of approximately eleven, which is the normal P/E ratio for a recession. However, the latest analyst’s viewpoint is that the S&P earnings for 2009 will be approximately $40. Divide 900 by 40, and you’re looking at a P/E ratio of approximately 22. Based upon simple mathematics, and the earnings power of corporations, the stock market is overpriced by half.
Will the stock market go straight down? No. Periodically, there could be bouts of euphoria that could take this market higher. However, as long as the politicians continue the same old approach, it could make for a very difficult 2009. With that said, however, I will continue to trade the market that’s in front of me. Welcome to the New Year!
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
A Year to End All Years...Or Was It?
Three years ago, when I started calling for the collapse in housing, banking, and the entire financial system, people thought: How insane, how completely irrational. Well…
For those who followed my strategy and tactics to the letter, you are enjoying a more comfortable feeling than others. However, complacency or smugness must not be allowed to filter into our minds. Much work remains to be done, and unfortunately, this rolling recession/depression shows no signs of letting up. Regardless of whether the President’s name is Bush, Obama, Clinton, or even Washington, Jefferson, Hoover or Roosevelt, the task of righting the ship will be monumental, if not impossible.
With that said, however, opportunities will continue to abound with assets correlated to the market, and those assets non-correlated to the market. Cash-flow will continue to be the vehicle of choice, and protection of capital will be as, or more important, than return on capital.
George S. Patton once said: A few battles won are insignificant if the war is lost. We have won many battles, (and also lost a few), but the war continues to rage. I will continue working diligently, utilizing the same successful strategies from the past, adjusting the tactics where warranted.
I wish you and yours a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
Till next year,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
For those who followed my strategy and tactics to the letter, you are enjoying a more comfortable feeling than others. However, complacency or smugness must not be allowed to filter into our minds. Much work remains to be done, and unfortunately, this rolling recession/depression shows no signs of letting up. Regardless of whether the President’s name is Bush, Obama, Clinton, or even Washington, Jefferson, Hoover or Roosevelt, the task of righting the ship will be monumental, if not impossible.
With that said, however, opportunities will continue to abound with assets correlated to the market, and those assets non-correlated to the market. Cash-flow will continue to be the vehicle of choice, and protection of capital will be as, or more important, than return on capital.
George S. Patton once said: A few battles won are insignificant if the war is lost. We have won many battles, (and also lost a few), but the war continues to rage. I will continue working diligently, utilizing the same successful strategies from the past, adjusting the tactics where warranted.
I wish you and yours a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
Till next year,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Monday, December 22, 2008
'Tis the Season
All weekend long, I’ve been listening to Bing Crosby, Louie Armstrong, Michael Buble, and watching Jimmy Stewart, Natalie Wood, and of course Ralphie (you’ll shoot your eye out!). It’s been a “wonderful life” of fantasy, and with the massive snowstorm on Friday the winter wonderland was complete, and thus began my favorite time of the year – Christmas. I even watched Ebenezer trying to change my mood, but ultimately, he came around to my way of thinking. No Scrooge in this house.
Not to be totally diverted from my work, I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush, but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.
What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt with, or are dealing in, the same Christmas spirit. I call it fantasy. But that’s alright because the stock market wants fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of hope. In the short term, hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and Wall Street is hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year, and eventually, we must turn from fantasy to reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality, and I’ll stay long the market, and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, and the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!
Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season!
Till next time,
Bill
Not to be totally diverted from my work, I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush, but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.
What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt with, or are dealing in, the same Christmas spirit. I call it fantasy. But that’s alright because the stock market wants fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of hope. In the short term, hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and Wall Street is hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year, and eventually, we must turn from fantasy to reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality, and I’ll stay long the market, and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, and the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!
Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season!
Till next time,
Bill
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Ho! Ho! Ho!
All weekend long I’ve been listening to Bing Crosby, Louie Armstrong, Michael Buble’, and watching Jimmy Steward, Natalie Wood and of course Ralphie (You’ll shoot your eye out!). It’s been a “wonderful life” of fantasy and with the massive snowstorm on Friday the winter wonderland was complete and thus began my favorite time of the year – Christmas. I even watched Ebenezer trying to change my mood but ultimately he came to my way of thinking. No Scrooge in this house.
Not to be totally diverted from my work I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Polosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.
What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt or are dealing in the same Christmas spirit, Fantasy. But that’s ok because the markets want fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of Hope. In the short term, Hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Clause and Wall Street is Hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year and we must turn from Fantasy to Reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality and I’ll stay long and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!
Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Not to be totally diverted from my work I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Polosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.
What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt or are dealing in the same Christmas spirit, Fantasy. But that’s ok because the markets want fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of Hope. In the short term, Hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Clause and Wall Street is Hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year and we must turn from Fantasy to Reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality and I’ll stay long and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!
Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Insanity
You can’t make this stuff up. This last week, the Governor of Illinois made headlines for allegedly selling a Senate seat, the U.S. Senate voted down the auto industry bailout, and the former chairman of the NASDAQ was arrested for allegedly setting up the biggest Ponzi scheme since the 1920’s.
With that said, what you also can’t make up is the continued persistence of individuals to not adhere to, or not understand, what Einstein meant when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. So what do we hear?
We hear that it’s time to jump back in the stock market again, and that we’re in it for the long-term. We hear that the stock market over the last ten days has moved higher, and everything is O.K. We hear the market is going to come back. We hear all the usual clichés that wall Street loves to throw around. And once again, the American public swallows it hook, line, and sinker, and continues to do the same thing because they believe this time it will be different.
Will the Illinois governor get off on these charges? Not on your life. Will Washington eventually bail out the automakers? Probably. Will the unwinding of the Ponzi scheme have an impact? More than likely. And oh, by the way, were there’s one cockroach…you know that theory. Is the bear market short-term rally over? I don’t think so.
I have been preaching, teaching, and screaming from the rooftops, that when it comes to investing, you must take a different approach. The idea that the stock market is an investment vehicle went out with the horse and buggy. The market is to be used as a trading vehicle. For example, if you get gains of 10% to 30% in the steel industry, in the cement industry, or in any infrastructure, take your gains. It’s called active management.
Yes, I am frustrated. I am frustrated by the gullibility of the American public. P.T Barnum once said: You can never grow broke underestimating the intelligence or the taste of the American public. I used to think he was wrong. Now, I’m beginning to think he may have been correct.
Till next time,
Bill
Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc. MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC
With that said, what you also can’t make up is the continued persistence of individuals to not adhere to, or not understand, what Einstein meant when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. So what do we hear?
We hear that it’s time to jump back in the stock market again, and that we’re in it for the long-term. We hear that the stock market over the last ten days has moved higher, and everything is O.K. We hear the market is going to come back. We hear all the usual clichés that wall Street loves to throw around. And once again, the American public swallows it hook, line, and sinker, and continues to do the same thing because they believe this time it will be different.
Will the Illinois governor get off on these charges? Not on your life. Will Washington eventually bail out the automakers? Probably. Will the unwinding of the Ponzi scheme have an impact? More than likely. And oh, by the way, were there’s one cockroach…you know that theory. Is the bear market short-term rally over? I don’t think so.
I have been preaching, teaching, and screaming from the rooftops, that when it comes to investing, you must take a different approach. The idea that the stock market is an investment vehicle went out with the horse and buggy. The market is to be used as a trading vehicle. For example, if you get gains of 10% to 30% in the steel industry, in the cement industry, or in any infrastructure, take your gains. It’s called active management.
Yes, I am frustrated. I am frustrated by the gullibility of the American public. P.T Barnum once said: You can never grow broke underestimating the intelligence or the taste of the American public. I used to think he was wrong. Now, I’m beginning to think he may have been correct.
Till next time,
Bill
Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc. MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC
Monday, December 8, 2008
All's Well that Ends Well
The beauty of Shakespeare in his many plays is that he had plots, subplots, text, and context. There were ebbs and flows, sometimes confusing, sometimes simple. The stock market is eerily similar to a Shakespearean drama. Obviously, the current overriding theme is a bear market. The news is negative, the troubles many. However, woven within the tapestry of theater is the subplot, and that’s the market’s action itself.
On Friday, some of the worst news in over twenty-five years hit the marketplace. Yet, the market shrugged it off, and moved to higher levels. Impressive? Very much so. It’s even possible that Santa Claus has come to town. Imagine that, Santa Claus in a Shakespearean play!
The economic fundamentals continue to be horrible. Whether it’s the Big Three automakers, increasing unemployment, or the battered retailers. But often times, even in bear markets, stocks fight through the bad news, and look for better things in the future. We could argue, and we could discuss macroeconomics, but the rules of the game are simple. Trade the market that’s in front of you. Like a Shakespearean play, we will not fight the subplot.
Hold on, the last few weeks of the year could be a heck of a ride.
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
On Friday, some of the worst news in over twenty-five years hit the marketplace. Yet, the market shrugged it off, and moved to higher levels. Impressive? Very much so. It’s even possible that Santa Claus has come to town. Imagine that, Santa Claus in a Shakespearean play!
The economic fundamentals continue to be horrible. Whether it’s the Big Three automakers, increasing unemployment, or the battered retailers. But often times, even in bear markets, stocks fight through the bad news, and look for better things in the future. We could argue, and we could discuss macroeconomics, but the rules of the game are simple. Trade the market that’s in front of you. Like a Shakespearean play, we will not fight the subplot.
Hold on, the last few weeks of the year could be a heck of a ride.
Ho! Ho! Ho!
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
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