Against All Odds

February 28, 2008: “I expect there will be some failures…I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks.” - Ben Bernanke

January 20, 2009: As the dawn breaks, and we stand on the threshold of a new era, hope and optimism reign supreme. Hands are being held, hugs are being exchanged, and tears are flowing, as the old is swept away, and the new is ushered in. All things are possible, we are told, and we try to feel good because people with the best intentions are now in place. “It will be different this time, we do know what to do,” they say. “Just give us a chance, after all we’re smart people, we do have the answers, and you will feel better.”

I wish you all the best, Mr. President. But unfortunately, I’ve seen this movie before, and know how it ends. My primary goal for my clients is not for them to feel better, but to make, keep, and recover money. That sometimes demands betting against you, Mr. President.

Till next time,

Bill




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