“Initial jobless claims climb to 484,000”
“The number of workers receiving extended federal benefits rose 161,101 to 5.97 million”
“All told, 11.08 million people were collecting some type of unemployment benefits in the week of March 27th”
- CBS Marketwatch 4-15-10
“The heavy concentration of bullish strategies among all classes of traders pushed the Option Speculation Index to another recent high…., the only comparison in history that we have are the weeks around the peak in the Spring of 2000. The last time we were here, the tech bubble was about to pop, and result in 50% losses for the NASDAQ virtually overnight. This time around, this is not a tech isolated bubble. This is a global bubble funded by the endless money printing. When it pops, it will take down every asset class with it.”
- The Sentiment Trader 4-12-10
“Recovery picking up steam”
- Ben Bernanke 4-14-10
"U.S. homebuilders grow more optimistic in early April"
- National Association of Homebuilders 4-15-10
“Foreclosures soared to 367,056 in March, up 19% from February, 8% higher than March of 2009 and 56% higher from March 2008 according to the foreclosure data specialist RealtyTrac.”
- The Atlanta 4-14-10
“A vast majority of technical indicators such as the CBOE Volatility Index, Investors Intelligence Advisory Survey, CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratios, Daily Sentiment Index, and the thirty-day NYSE Trin, are aligned at or near extremes. We have a very long history with these indicators and their message is bearish. It is nearly the exact opposite extreme to that which occurred in the first few months of 2009.”
- Elliot Wave Financial Forecast Services 4-14-10
“Regardless of the reality…..what matters most for the direction of the stock market is to determine how everybody FEELS about it. "
- Nick Godt (CBS Marketwatch) 4-15-10
George Soros, speaking at a meeting organized by “The Economist” warned all those who are throwing their money into the equity pit that “the financial world is on the wrong track, and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.”
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
The Currency Peg
China comes to town this week, or, more specifically, a Chinese representative comes-a-callin’. The question on everyone’s mind: Will the Chinese wilt under the pressure of the Obama smooth talk, the letter signed by a hundred Congressmen and Senators, and Geithner’s middle-of-the-night clandestine meetings? It seems everyone wants the Chinese to allow their currency to float versus our dollar.
A little review is in order. We no longer, since 1971 (thanks, President Nixon), are on the gold standard. Thus, currencies float against each other. For example, if the U.S. dollar is rising, the euro is falling, and vice-versa. The tactic of printing money (Bernanke style) has de-valued our currency. However, it has made our goods cheaper in the world, and this benefits American corporations engaged in international trade. In addition, it also makes overseas goods more expensive. Thus, you see a German manufacturer urging their country to play the same game as the United States.
China is the only country not to go along with this. They have pegged their currency to the U.S. dollar. Thus, if our dollar goes up, so does theirs. If our dollar goes down, theirs does likewise. So essentially, there is no currency benefit for either country. Why do it? Because China knows that if currency is taken out of the equation, manufacturing will simply be judged by cost and quality. China knows that they can always win on cost, not always on quality. (You’d never know by looking at the way Wal-Mart markets Chinese goods.)
Will China float their currency? Probably not. However, they might provide some type of provision so Obama can say he’s working things out, and the Congressmen and Senators can go back to their districts, or states, and show how tough they were with the Chinese.
The reality is that China has us over a barrel, and they know it. And de-pegging from our currency? No way.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
A little review is in order. We no longer, since 1971 (thanks, President Nixon), are on the gold standard. Thus, currencies float against each other. For example, if the U.S. dollar is rising, the euro is falling, and vice-versa. The tactic of printing money (Bernanke style) has de-valued our currency. However, it has made our goods cheaper in the world, and this benefits American corporations engaged in international trade. In addition, it also makes overseas goods more expensive. Thus, you see a German manufacturer urging their country to play the same game as the United States.
China is the only country not to go along with this. They have pegged their currency to the U.S. dollar. Thus, if our dollar goes up, so does theirs. If our dollar goes down, theirs does likewise. So essentially, there is no currency benefit for either country. Why do it? Because China knows that if currency is taken out of the equation, manufacturing will simply be judged by cost and quality. China knows that they can always win on cost, not always on quality. (You’d never know by looking at the way Wal-Mart markets Chinese goods.)
Will China float their currency? Probably not. However, they might provide some type of provision so Obama can say he’s working things out, and the Congressmen and Senators can go back to their districts, or states, and show how tough they were with the Chinese.
The reality is that China has us over a barrel, and they know it. And de-pegging from our currency? No way.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Conspicuously Quiet
For the past few weeks, I have been conspicuously quiet as world events have unfolded. Like a good sports television broadcaster who knows when to let the action do the talking, I have chosen to let events speak for themselves. And, oh, what events! From the passage of a health care bill, to the demise of the European Union, from Middle East taunts, to allied snubs, all contributing to the steady erosion of personal freedom.
One could think viewing the U.S. stock market that its business as usual, the worst is behind, and Obama Nation is masterfully leading us into the 21st century. Obama Nation is leading us into the 21st century, but the word “masterfully” is in the eye of the beholder. On the world stage, there are sometimes moments in history when earth-shattering and long-lasting events unfold. This is one such period. Economics, stock markets, and even our everyday lives adjust to the reality of events at their own pace. But make no mistake, they all adjust. In this instance, whether it’s a Greek citizen, an Israeli response, or the New York Stock Exchange, all will emerge differently from what one expects.
Quiet time is over. Let the games begin.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
One could think viewing the U.S. stock market that its business as usual, the worst is behind, and Obama Nation is masterfully leading us into the 21st century. Obama Nation is leading us into the 21st century, but the word “masterfully” is in the eye of the beholder. On the world stage, there are sometimes moments in history when earth-shattering and long-lasting events unfold. This is one such period. Economics, stock markets, and even our everyday lives adjust to the reality of events at their own pace. But make no mistake, they all adjust. In this instance, whether it’s a Greek citizen, an Israeli response, or the New York Stock Exchange, all will emerge differently from what one expects.
Quiet time is over. Let the games begin.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
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