When my children were young, one of them (name withheld to protect the innocent), would constantly procrastinate when it came time to do his/her homework.
“Start now,” I would say. “I want to watch T.V.,” he/she would reply.
“It’s time to get to work,” I strongly urged.
“I want to call my friend,” he/she answered.
I said, “Homework now!”
“OK,” he/she replied, “after I play a video game.”
“What is the matter with you?” I softly said. “Are you afraid of tackling the job?” He/she then looked at me, and just shrugged.
And so it is with President Barack Obama. Day, after day, after day, after day, on TV. Speech, after speech, after speech, after speech of how bad things are, and how we must get started on the road to recovery.
However, it seems Obama’s only starting point is to exclaim the same things he said in his campaign speech. Someone should tell him that he won the election, and the campaign is over! It’s time to get into the Oval Office, roll up your sleeves, and start doing some work. However, Barack did just deliver the biggest stimulus package in history that could create the greatest inflationary period our country has ever seen since Jimmy Carter. In addition, Obama also created a budget bill that could create the greatest deficit in history. (In fact, possibly larger than the first seven years of George Bush combined.)
“OK, Barack.” “You can stay on TV. You don’t have to do your homework.”
What a wonderful four years ahead, and we aren’t even through the first quarter yet.
Till next time,
Bill
Afterthought – As an American, I detest the road we’re going down. As a money manager, because of its predictability and inevitability, I love it. (Short, short, short, short, short, short, treasuries)
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
24-Hours of Soap Opera Drama
Tim Geithner (Secretary of the Treasury) - Wants to re-start “securitization,” the one practice that got us into this financial mess. Securitization has no accountability, no responsibility, and was the recipe for disaster. Clueless.
Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) - Endorses “super-regulator” as a top priority. Excuse me, sir, but aren't you and Geithner the super-regulators? Clueless.
President Barack Obama - When asked if encouraging consumers to spend and go further into debt is not just resurrecting old habits, which created the consumers demise, said to the reporter: “You just don’t understand. It’s just the banks that created the problem.” Clueless.
Barney Frank (Chairman of the Financial Services Committee) - No comment.
God help us.
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Ben Bernanke (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) - Endorses “super-regulator” as a top priority. Excuse me, sir, but aren't you and Geithner the super-regulators? Clueless.
President Barack Obama - When asked if encouraging consumers to spend and go further into debt is not just resurrecting old habits, which created the consumers demise, said to the reporter: “You just don’t understand. It’s just the banks that created the problem.” Clueless.
Barney Frank (Chairman of the Financial Services Committee) - No comment.
God help us.
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Monday, February 9, 2009
A Seesaw Battle
A billion here, a trillion there, after a while it almost becomes like real money. Since Thanksgiving of 2008, I have been pounding the table that since the Federal Reserve has placed the federal funds rate at 0%, it could go no lower. Brilliant, you say! That would be like saying that since one end of the teeter-totter was on the ground, it could go no lower. Any schoolchild could make that deduction.
But focus on the other end of the teeter-totter, McFly! Since one end could go no lower, the other end could go no higher. And so it is with Treasury bond prices. Since interest rates were at zero, that meant that the maximum value of short-term paper had been achieved. The ten-year treasury was 2% at the time. I use this piece of paper as my standard because that interest rate could also go to zero. But the likelihood of that happening was one in a million, a bet that I was, and am willing to take. Therefore, like the teeter-totter that was on the ground, interest rates have only one way to go from zero, and that is up.
The other end of the teeter-totter, the prices of bonds, have only one way to go, and that is down. Now, it won’t be straight down, but the ultimate direction will most assuredly be down. I have said continually, and will continue to say: Short treasuries, short treasuries, short treasuries! As Obama, Geinther, and Congress flood the world with the bailout plan, it requires a payment which would be made in printing and flooding the markets with treasuries. Any person who has attended an auction knows that when there is more supply than demand, prices fall, and very dramatically. Short treasuries, short treasuries, short treasuries!
It’s been many years since I’ve seen something so obvious. It’s an early Christmas present from the new administration. Thanks, Mr. President.
Till next time,
Bill
Long – GLD, SLV, and TBT
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
But focus on the other end of the teeter-totter, McFly! Since one end could go no lower, the other end could go no higher. And so it is with Treasury bond prices. Since interest rates were at zero, that meant that the maximum value of short-term paper had been achieved. The ten-year treasury was 2% at the time. I use this piece of paper as my standard because that interest rate could also go to zero. But the likelihood of that happening was one in a million, a bet that I was, and am willing to take. Therefore, like the teeter-totter that was on the ground, interest rates have only one way to go from zero, and that is up.
The other end of the teeter-totter, the prices of bonds, have only one way to go, and that is down. Now, it won’t be straight down, but the ultimate direction will most assuredly be down. I have said continually, and will continue to say: Short treasuries, short treasuries, short treasuries! As Obama, Geinther, and Congress flood the world with the bailout plan, it requires a payment which would be made in printing and flooding the markets with treasuries. Any person who has attended an auction knows that when there is more supply than demand, prices fall, and very dramatically. Short treasuries, short treasuries, short treasuries!
It’s been many years since I’ve seen something so obvious. It’s an early Christmas present from the new administration. Thanks, Mr. President.
Till next time,
Bill
Long – GLD, SLV, and TBT
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Monday, February 2, 2009
All That Golds is Not Glitter
The current discussion of why the price of gold is rising falls into two camps, with two potentially different results. The first is that the unlimited sums of money that are being thrown at the financial system by the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress will result in the mother of all inflation builds. Gold, the argument goes, is the primary beneficiary of this inflationary action, and smart money recognizing the possible inevitable, is climbing on board. The other camp says wait a minute. How can you have inflation with falling home prices, falling stock markets, and falling jobs. In fact, deflation, not inflation, is the watch word. Thus, gold would be a suckers bet, and would eventually plummet.
Which result is right? Maybe neither. Here’s the real story of why gold could be just beginning its ascent.
To understand what’s happening, we must return to a time when President Herbert Hoover said: “A chicken in every pot.” In 1930, we just finished a decade when production was high, but consumption was starting to decline not only in the United States, but around the world. Congress, besieged by U.S. businessmen, felt threatened by the influx of foreign goods, whether they were better or cheaper was not the point. Therefore, The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed to place large tariffs on imported goods. For example, a U.S. desk sells for $100, a Brazilian desk sells for $80. It’s obvious which one you buy. After Smoot-Hawley, a U.S. desk costs $100, a Brazilian desk costs $80, plus a $50 tariff (tax) = $130. Unfortunately, unintended consequences often occur when decisions are short sighted, because the rest of the world imposed the same kind of tariffs. Thus, exporting and importing came to a dead halt all around the world. Protectionism failed and the Great Depression was off to the races.
Fast forward to current times: We still have tariffs, but they are usually negotiated tariffs, therefore avoiding the all-out tariff war of the 1930’s. But here is where it get’s interesting. Governments have learned that businesses and people (tourists) will travel and buy where their currency gets the biggest bang for the buck. For years, you could go to Canada, have a $100 dinner, and yet see your American Express bill say $60 U.S., a pretty good value for your U.S dollar. However, once the U.S. dollar started falling, tourists, businesses, speculators, and governments, started coming to our shores in droves, because foreigners could get such good value for their currency. However, the problem that gradually arose was that as buyers bought in the U.S., they abandoned their own home country. From the smallest business to the largest corporation, they watched business flowing elsewhere. When economies are thriving, competition from other countries is good and healthy. However, when economies are on the verge of collapse, competition from other countries is unwanted, and could be very destructive.
What countries have discovered around the world is that the tariffs, like the 1930’s, are too overt, and too threatening. But devaluing your currency will have the effect of stimulating your economy, if you are the only one doing it. Unfortunately, every country is talking down their currency at the same time. Therefore, paper currency of the world, including the U.S. dollar, is being viewed as basically worthless. This could continue to get worse, not better.
The only currency that has maintained its value over centuries, and recognized by all countries is…..yes, that’s right, gold. Gold is rising because the politicians, the economists, and even media personalities, have once again misjudged the impact of protectionism. Gold is rising because smart money knows that the impact of isolationism could be depression. To compound the matter, the stimulus package has a “buy America” clause in it, allowing only U.S. companies to participate in the infa-structure build out. Do they honestly believe other countries will not raise walls to our companies for projects they are initiating?
Those who don’t understand history are doomed to repeat the failures of the past.
The icing on the cake for gold could ultimately be the unavoidable inflation. The 1930’s only had tariffs. Currently, we have tariffs, currency devaluation, deflation, and the specter of runaway inflation. Gold, you’ve got to love it!
Till next time,
Bill
Long: Gold and silver. Short: Treasuries.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Which result is right? Maybe neither. Here’s the real story of why gold could be just beginning its ascent.
To understand what’s happening, we must return to a time when President Herbert Hoover said: “A chicken in every pot.” In 1930, we just finished a decade when production was high, but consumption was starting to decline not only in the United States, but around the world. Congress, besieged by U.S. businessmen, felt threatened by the influx of foreign goods, whether they were better or cheaper was not the point. Therefore, The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed to place large tariffs on imported goods. For example, a U.S. desk sells for $100, a Brazilian desk sells for $80. It’s obvious which one you buy. After Smoot-Hawley, a U.S. desk costs $100, a Brazilian desk costs $80, plus a $50 tariff (tax) = $130. Unfortunately, unintended consequences often occur when decisions are short sighted, because the rest of the world imposed the same kind of tariffs. Thus, exporting and importing came to a dead halt all around the world. Protectionism failed and the Great Depression was off to the races.
Fast forward to current times: We still have tariffs, but they are usually negotiated tariffs, therefore avoiding the all-out tariff war of the 1930’s. But here is where it get’s interesting. Governments have learned that businesses and people (tourists) will travel and buy where their currency gets the biggest bang for the buck. For years, you could go to Canada, have a $100 dinner, and yet see your American Express bill say $60 U.S., a pretty good value for your U.S dollar. However, once the U.S. dollar started falling, tourists, businesses, speculators, and governments, started coming to our shores in droves, because foreigners could get such good value for their currency. However, the problem that gradually arose was that as buyers bought in the U.S., they abandoned their own home country. From the smallest business to the largest corporation, they watched business flowing elsewhere. When economies are thriving, competition from other countries is good and healthy. However, when economies are on the verge of collapse, competition from other countries is unwanted, and could be very destructive.
What countries have discovered around the world is that the tariffs, like the 1930’s, are too overt, and too threatening. But devaluing your currency will have the effect of stimulating your economy, if you are the only one doing it. Unfortunately, every country is talking down their currency at the same time. Therefore, paper currency of the world, including the U.S. dollar, is being viewed as basically worthless. This could continue to get worse, not better.
The only currency that has maintained its value over centuries, and recognized by all countries is…..yes, that’s right, gold. Gold is rising because the politicians, the economists, and even media personalities, have once again misjudged the impact of protectionism. Gold is rising because smart money knows that the impact of isolationism could be depression. To compound the matter, the stimulus package has a “buy America” clause in it, allowing only U.S. companies to participate in the infa-structure build out. Do they honestly believe other countries will not raise walls to our companies for projects they are initiating?
Those who don’t understand history are doomed to repeat the failures of the past.
The icing on the cake for gold could ultimately be the unavoidable inflation. The 1930’s only had tariffs. Currently, we have tariffs, currency devaluation, deflation, and the specter of runaway inflation. Gold, you’ve got to love it!
Till next time,
Bill
Long: Gold and silver. Short: Treasuries.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
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