Fact - Senate Democrats will vote today to increase the nation’s debt limit to a record $14.3 trillion, an increase of $1.9 trillion. (So much for Obama’s fiscal responsibility.)
Fact - The total number of people claiming unemployment benefits of any kind in the week ending January 9th was 11.5 million, compared with 12 million people the previous week. (Either 500,000 people found jobs (yeah, right), or 500,000 people exhausted their unemployment benefits.)
Fact - Nancy Pelosi says “If there is a freeze on spending in 2011, why not a 10% cut in defense spending.” (She must think Al-Qaeda will surrender by then.)
Fiction - Senator Barack Obama announced that after nine years George W. Bush is no longer President, and Obama looks forward to running the country and being called “President Barack Obama.”
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
We're Off to the Races
We start 2010, the year I believe that will be studied in future textbooks as a pivotal year in American history. We’ve already witnessed an election for the ages in Massachusetts, a political attack on the “too big to fail banks,” and 650,000 new people in one week applying for emergency unemployment compensation. (Current total 5.6 million people.) If President Obama is sincere and is able to deliver on the promise of shutting down Federal Reserve assisted proprietary trading by commercial banks, it will go a long way in reducing the risk of another financial meltdown. However, the unintended consequence could be a stock market collapse, since the main support and driving force arguably has been the prop desk. I don’t mind if the banks want to take risk, just not with our taxpayer money. Let’s see if Obama can deliver, or if it’s just another in a long-line of sound bites. Regardless, the die is cast, the stock market’s direction has been foretold, and 2010 starts with a bang, not a whimper.
Till next time,
Bill
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
2010 - One Man's Opinion (Part II)
6.) Public anger over political decisions such as budget increases, healthcare, and Wall Street bailouts will not subside as expected. The Tea Party becomes more influential as we approach the November elections.
7.) President Obama’s ratings drop to an historical low, and, as a consequence, his public appearances are sporadic at best. The general public comes to grips about his lack of economic comprehension as well as his misunderstanding of being a true Commander-in-Chief.
8.) International incidents against the United States could rise, as opponents sense a softness not seen before. In addition, our allies (e.g. Israel), may take overt actions into their own hands.
9.) Treasury yields will continue to move higher as the government printing presses keep printing money. That is until the stock market crashes and safety becomes the objective. At that point, fear and panic should drive treasury prices higher and yields lower.
10.) The dollar re-asserts itself as a safe haven as the events in #9 play out.
Conclusion of One Man’s Opinion (Part I and Part II): The stock market has one last gasp, then replicates the Tulip Bulb Mania of 1630, the Mississippi Company of 1700, the South Sea Company of 1700, the market crash of 1930, the Nikkei of 1989, the dot-com of 2001, and overall, could drop by as much as 80%. When you connect the dots, the conclusion is almost irrefutable. However, anything can happen, and usually does.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
7.) President Obama’s ratings drop to an historical low, and, as a consequence, his public appearances are sporadic at best. The general public comes to grips about his lack of economic comprehension as well as his misunderstanding of being a true Commander-in-Chief.
8.) International incidents against the United States could rise, as opponents sense a softness not seen before. In addition, our allies (e.g. Israel), may take overt actions into their own hands.
9.) Treasury yields will continue to move higher as the government printing presses keep printing money. That is until the stock market crashes and safety becomes the objective. At that point, fear and panic should drive treasury prices higher and yields lower.
10.) The dollar re-asserts itself as a safe haven as the events in #9 play out.
Conclusion of One Man’s Opinion (Part I and Part II): The stock market has one last gasp, then replicates the Tulip Bulb Mania of 1630, the Mississippi Company of 1700, the South Sea Company of 1700, the market crash of 1930, the Nikkei of 1989, the dot-com of 2001, and overall, could drop by as much as 80%. When you connect the dots, the conclusion is almost irrefutable. However, anything can happen, and usually does.
Till next time,
Bill
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
2010 - One Man's Opinion (Part I)
1.) Dramatic increase in bank failures – the FDIC is hiring over one thousand new employees. Are they getting prepared?
2.) Several municipalities could declare bankruptcy, and several states, led by California and New York, may be in technical default. I believe expenses will continue to outpace tax revenues, and April 15th will be D-day. Havoc could be the word for the municipal bond market.
3.) Leveraged commercial real estate continues its path to implosion. But the big surprise, residential housing, which started it all, will resurface as a significant problem. A tsunami of mortgage resets will occur over the next 24 months, including subprime, prime, Alt-a, and Option ARM.*
4.) Americans go further into debt (if that’s possible) as the government encourages more cash-for-clunkers type programs. Yet bankruptcies, credit card defaults, and housing foreclosures continue rising.
5.) Real unemployment continues to accelerate toward 25%. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) keeps climbing as non-government job creation is nonexistent. However, the government and mainstream media will continue to focus on first-time unemployment claims, thus massaging the numbers.
Tomorrow – Part II….it doesn’t get any better.
Till next time,
Bill
*Bloomberg
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A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
2.) Several municipalities could declare bankruptcy, and several states, led by California and New York, may be in technical default. I believe expenses will continue to outpace tax revenues, and April 15th will be D-day. Havoc could be the word for the municipal bond market.
3.) Leveraged commercial real estate continues its path to implosion. But the big surprise, residential housing, which started it all, will resurface as a significant problem. A tsunami of mortgage resets will occur over the next 24 months, including subprime, prime, Alt-a, and Option ARM.*
4.) Americans go further into debt (if that’s possible) as the government encourages more cash-for-clunkers type programs. Yet bankruptcies, credit card defaults, and housing foreclosures continue rising.
5.) Real unemployment continues to accelerate toward 25%. Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) keeps climbing as non-government job creation is nonexistent. However, the government and mainstream media will continue to focus on first-time unemployment claims, thus massaging the numbers.
Tomorrow – Part II….it doesn’t get any better.
Till next time,
Bill
*Bloomberg
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A disclaimer: None of the content published on billtatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
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