Wednesday, December 31, 2008

A Year to End All Years...Or Was It?

Three years ago, when I started calling for the collapse in housing, banking, and the entire financial system, people thought: How insane, how completely irrational. Well…

For those who followed my strategy and tactics to the letter, you are enjoying a more comfortable feeling than others. However, complacency or smugness must not be allowed to filter into our minds. Much work remains to be done, and unfortunately, this rolling recession/depression shows no signs of letting up. Regardless of whether the President’s name is Bush, Obama, Clinton, or even Washington, Jefferson, Hoover or Roosevelt, the task of righting the ship will be monumental, if not impossible.

With that said, however, opportunities will continue to abound with assets correlated to the market, and those assets non-correlated to the market. Cash-flow will continue to be the vehicle of choice, and protection of capital will be as, or more important, than return on capital.

George S. Patton once said: A few battles won are insignificant if the war is lost. We have won many battles, (and also lost a few), but the war continues to rage. I will continue working diligently, utilizing the same successful strategies from the past, adjusting the tactics where warranted.

I wish you and yours a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year!

Till next year,

Bill



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A disclaimer: None of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Monday, December 22, 2008

'Tis the Season

All weekend long, I’ve been listening to Bing Crosby, Louie Armstrong, Michael Buble, and watching Jimmy Stewart, Natalie Wood, and of course Ralphie (you’ll shoot your eye out!). It’s been a “wonderful life” of fantasy, and with the massive snowstorm on Friday the winter wonderland was complete, and thus began my favorite time of the year – Christmas. I even watched Ebenezer trying to change my mood, but ultimately, he came around to my way of thinking. No Scrooge in this house.

Not to be totally diverted from my work, I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush, but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.

What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt with, or are dealing in, the same Christmas spirit. I call it fantasy. But that’s alright because the stock market wants fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of hope. In the short term, hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and Wall Street is hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year, and eventually, we must turn from fantasy to reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality, and I’ll stay long the market, and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, and the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!

Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season!

Till next time,

Bill

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Ho! Ho! Ho!

All weekend long I’ve been listening to Bing Crosby, Louie Armstrong, Michael Buble’, and watching Jimmy Steward, Natalie Wood and of course Ralphie (You’ll shoot your eye out!). It’s been a “wonderful life” of fantasy and with the massive snowstorm on Friday the winter wonderland was complete and thus began my favorite time of the year – Christmas. I even watched Ebenezer trying to change my mood but ultimately he came to my way of thinking. No Scrooge in this house.

Not to be totally diverted from my work I spent several hours reading and listening to Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Polosi, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. I was looking for something from George Bush but apparently he was out Christmas shopping.

What’s interesting is that both the entertainers and the politicians dealt or are dealing in the same Christmas spirit, Fantasy. But that’s ok because the markets want fantasy. The markets are living on the fantasy of Hope. In the short term, Hope can be very powerful and could generously fill our stockings and put myriad presents under the tree.

Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Clause and Wall Street is Hopeful the old gent will deliver. Unfortunately, Christmas comes but once a year and we must turn from Fantasy to Reality. When that comes, Scrooge could have his way. However, we’ll take the fantasy until we must face the reality and I’ll stay long and enjoy the croonings of Louie and Bing, the bedtime stories of Ben and Hank, the naiveté of Jimmy, Ralphie, Barack and Joe. Ho! Ho! Ho!

Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season.

Till next time,

Bill

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Insanity

You can’t make this stuff up. This last week, the Governor of Illinois made headlines for allegedly selling a Senate seat, the U.S. Senate voted down the auto industry bailout, and the former chairman of the NASDAQ was arrested for allegedly setting up the biggest Ponzi scheme since the 1920’s.

With that said, what you also can’t make up is the continued persistence of individuals to not adhere to, or not understand, what Einstein meant when he said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. So what do we hear?
We hear that it’s time to jump back in the stock market again, and that we’re in it for the long-term. We hear that the stock market over the last ten days has moved higher, and everything is O.K. We hear the market is going to come back. We hear all the usual clichés that wall Street loves to throw around. And once again, the American public swallows it hook, line, and sinker, and continues to do the same thing because they believe this time it will be different.

Will the Illinois governor get off on these charges? Not on your life. Will Washington eventually bail out the automakers? Probably. Will the unwinding of the Ponzi scheme have an impact? More than likely. And oh, by the way, were there’s one cockroach…you know that theory. Is the bear market short-term rally over? I don’t think so.

I have been preaching, teaching, and screaming from the rooftops, that when it comes to investing, you must take a different approach. The idea that the stock market is an investment vehicle went out with the horse and buggy. The market is to be used as a trading vehicle. For example, if you get gains of 10% to 30% in the steel industry, in the cement industry, or in any infrastructure, take your gains. It’s called active management.

Yes, I am frustrated. I am frustrated by the gullibility of the American public. P.T Barnum once said: You can never grow broke underestimating the intelligence or the taste of the American public. I used to think he was wrong. Now, I’m beginning to think he may have been correct.


Till next time,

Bill


Securities offered through First Allied Securities, Inc. MEMBER: FINRA/SIPC

Monday, December 8, 2008

All's Well that Ends Well

The beauty of Shakespeare in his many plays is that he had plots, subplots, text, and context. There were ebbs and flows, sometimes confusing, sometimes simple. The stock market is eerily similar to a Shakespearean drama. Obviously, the current overriding theme is a bear market. The news is negative, the troubles many. However, woven within the tapestry of theater is the subplot, and that’s the market’s action itself.

On Friday, some of the worst news in over twenty-five years hit the marketplace. Yet, the market shrugged it off, and moved to higher levels. Impressive? Very much so. It’s even possible that Santa Claus has come to town. Imagine that, Santa Claus in a Shakespearean play!

The economic fundamentals continue to be horrible. Whether it’s the Big Three automakers, increasing unemployment, or the battered retailers. But often times, even in bear markets, stocks fight through the bad news, and look for better things in the future. We could argue, and we could discuss macroeconomics, but the rules of the game are simple. Trade the market that’s in front of you. Like a Shakespearean play, we will not fight the subplot.

Hold on, the last few weeks of the year could be a heck of a ride.

Ho! Ho! Ho!

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

The Perfect Upside Storm

For the last three years, I have been calling for the collapse of our highly leveraged economic system. With this in mind, I chose to position my client’s portfolios for this Armageddon. I utilized high degrees of cash, assets non-correlated to the stock market that pay predictable cash-flows, and also vehicles with income and principle guarantees.

My strategy was a contradiction to the normally accepted practice of positioning money across all asset classes, and of course, positioning long. I defied accepted practices of Modern Portfolio Theory and focused on the following question: Will the path of least resistance be up, or down, given the economic maelstrom I saw coming? I deduced down. Next: What sectors would show the greatest misfortune by the unraveling of leveraged mortgages, the cornerstone for all our problems. I deduced homebuilders first, and the financials second. Therefore, I focused the brunt of my stock market positions by shorting (betting against) the homebuilders and financials. It was the second best call that I’ve ever made in my thirty-six year career. The best call will be left for another time. That opportunity will present itself shortly. But I digress.

Currently the question to ask is: What is next for the stock market and ultimately the economy? I continue to believe that there is more trouble ahead for both. However, keep in mind, the stock market rarely goes straight up or straight down. Therein lies the opportunity. I’ve been asked many times by people who have made money during this difficult time period (my clients), and by those who have lost as much as 50% and more: Can I make more, and can I make it all back? I believe strongly the answer is yes. Both are possible.

So, what is the strategy? It is not to repeat the policies of the past by hoping things will turn around. Hope is a sucker’s play of which I happily like to bet against. Let’s first determine the players in this drama. The players are: Money managers, traders, President-elect Obama, and the employed, or soon to be unemployed.

Money managers have lost vast sums of money for their clients this year (this manager excluded.) They need to salvage some kind of positive performance for the remainder of the year in order to help make year-end account statements a little more palatable. Therefore, they will look for any sector or sectors that show the best upside potential. Then, like good Wall Street lemmings that they are, they will all follow into the trade. We saw it the other day with Hewlett-Packard ($34.64 as of 11-21-08) up 12% in one day. However, I don’t believe the technology sector offers much upside. Too much uncertainty about IT spending, and the lack of consumer spending on electronic gadgets.

What about financials, the most beaten down sector? I don’t think so. Too much uncertainty of what is on their books. In addition, there is too much potential for real government interference. (Eg. Citigroup $3.77 as of 11-21-08.) Definitely not retailers due to the death of the consumers. Healthcare? A potential.


Here’s where the next player comes in: The traders. The daily guys and gals who sit in front of the screens playing moving averages, candlesticks, stochastic, and many other byzantine terms. But make no mistake, they have a dramatic impact on the daily stock market movements.

What I asked myself is: What is the second most beaten down sector that not only could run dramatically to the 50-day moving average, and produce a double, a triple, or even a quadruple and still be technically broken? In other words, still be a downtrend, yet still offer some great upside. Answer: Commodities.

Bring in the next player: President-elect Obama, who continues to say, much like China has said, that the way out of our current malaise is the rebuilding of infrastructure. Obama has been tapped as the next FDR by the media. Textbooks show that FDR instituted the greatest public works program in history. Unfortunately, it didn’t work. We never escaped the throes of the 1930’s until planes arrived at Pearl Harbor.

The next player: Employees, soon to be unemployed. As the unemployment rate rises, companies will be allowed to fail, and people will look for new jobs. Where will those new jobs be created? Ask yourself: What does it take to build a bridge, a road, an overpass? It takes steel, cement, aluminum, and much more. Jobs, workers, paychecks, salvation. Wrong! However, the perception, I believe, will give impetus to a major move in those stocks that fit this bill.

In the past, I have shared with you my strategy for the downside. Now, I’ll share my strategy for the upside. Companies with good dividends that have fallen very far and very fast. Companies that fit for the money managers, and companies that fit for the traders. Companies that fit for the promises of President-elect Obama, and companies that fit for the unemployed. Companies that fit for the re-building of America.

There is a perfect storm building for basic materials to the upside. Remember, it’s only a trade. But I think it could be a very good one.

Till next time,

Bill

Long – UYM, ACM, TEX, and looking for more.

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Monday, November 17, 2008

The Truth Hurts

Over the weekend, I listened to commentary by the members of the G20. I also listened to President-elect Obama, and many of the economists who claim to have the solutions to all of our economic problems. The sad part about this whole thing is that none of them, and I mean none of them, saw this thing coming, and yet, now they all claim they know how to get us out of it. Well, quite frankly, they’re missing the forest for the trees. When you create an environment where four cars, three homes, multiple electronic devices, extravagant vacations, and dining out almost every night of the week is the norm, you have to ask yourself the question: What has made all this possible? Answer: low interest rates, and ease of credit has made the lifestyle of excess standard fare.

What everyone is missing is that in order to support these extravagant lifestyles, businesses have been created, and the world has gotten into the mix. For example, China builds ten factories, and puts thousands of employees to work, strictly to make products that are imported to stores in the United States, and eventually, to you, the consumer. Those businesses created jobs. Those jobs created income, the income created credit, the credit created the new lifestyle, and cycle goes on, and on, and on. The problem occurs when the consumer stops buying. Therefore, those businesses are no longer needed.

They all have it wrong: The G20, Obama, Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, and the pundits on television. They all figure they want to get it going again. However, they can’t. Why? It’s over, and times have changed. The solution? Very simple: Don’t live beyond your means. That’s the reality of the economy that we are living in today. Wake up and face it!

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. - Will the stock market trade straight down? Of course not. There will be fits and starts along the way, which will create trading opportunities. Last Thursday was a classic example. The market had a lower low than the day before, but closed higher than the day before on very heavy volume. That’s called a classic reversal pattern, and that’s why we currently own long positions.

Monday, November 3, 2008

CLEAR!!!!

Halloween just behind, the election just ahead, and in the middle, the stock market, which is showing signs of life. I’m not sure of the three, which is, or was, the most frightening. Do you remember on Ben Casey, ER, or even Grey’s Anatomy, when medics would bring in an obviously dead heart attack victim, but the aggressive young doctor would proclaim “I can save him, give me the paddles, and stand back.” Then the doctor would place the paddles on the body, and hit it with incredibly high volts of electricity. The body would contort in the air, and fall back…dead. Again and again, the doctor would perform this theater. “Stand back, electric shock, contortion, dead.” Eventually, everyone would walk away proclaiming they had done their best, but the body was still dead.

Right now, the economy is that body, and doctors Bernanke and Paulson have been hitting the body with charge after charge of electricity (money.) Yet the body (economy), is still dead. No matter who wins the election, no amount of electricity (tax increases, sharing the wealth, isolationism, defense cut-backs, buying mortgages, or even elevating Joe the Plumber), will save an economy that continues its meltdown.

However, while young Dr. Kildare is working on the body, the optimism that it will generate will allow us to take advantage of many opportunities. But in the long run, the patient is dead, and the flatline cannot be changed.

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. – Long - DDM, DIG, FCX, FNFG, GE, GLD, NYB, RXL, UYM. Shorts - none.

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Fantasyland

Traders trade and investors…well, investors should own real investments, non-correlated to the stock market, and predictable.

Yesterday, Bernanke put another stimulus package on the table, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average liked it, to the tune of 413 points on the upside. Today, earnings took center stage, Lehman’s CDS problem concluded, and yesterday’s energy darlings became today’s victims of profit taking. All in all, just another typical day of volatile trading.

However, the overriding theme continues to be the governmental solutions of the worldwide banking crisis. Commentators, money managers, pundits, politicos, and probably even Joe the Plumber, say that the crisis is over, and the banks can start lending again. That’s what may take this market higher over the next few weeks, and even over the next few months. However, when reality sets in, banks, more than likely, will not lend, and the economy will be seen lurching toward a conclusion not seen since the 1930’s.

I have put a little money to work, as taking advantage of Fantasyland may not be all that bad; let's just not drink ALL the cool-aid.

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. – Long UYM, NYB, FNFG, DDM, QLD


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Friday, October 17, 2008

A Walk Down Memory Lane

For those of you who think that I’m a Johnny-come-lately to the housing debacle and the credit crunch, below is a sampling of my emails that have gone out to thousands of people over the past two years. Positioning for the meltdown was, and is, paramount.

4/11/2006: To be successful, you need to take what’s given and react accordingly. If you pay more at the pumps, figure out who’s profiting. Not only from the start of the oil production process, but also to the finish. If the market is showing weakness, you may use the various long and short strategies to benefit. Finally, if the obvious is occurring, wait until it runs its course, and then jump into action.

10/27/06: The media’s selective information and spinning has usually made the investor the last to know. Remember Enron, WorldCom, Global Crossing? Currently, I believe the homebuilding industry is in a death spiral, one that has not been seen since 1988-1991. Inventories of unsold houses climbing, unsold completed homes at record levels, foreclosures mounting, and median prices declining to record levels. But the pundits, especially the MAD ones on TV say “So what”, “No big deal, “It’s almost over.” My response: It’s just begun. The higher we go, the harder we fall. And the beat goes on.

11/22/06: Could the breaking of the housing bubble hurt the average American more than the collapse in stock prices in 2000-2002? It could be so since 69% own their own abodes, compared with 50% who own stocks or mutual funds. Speaking of housing, how long will it take to bring inventories of unsold houses into normal levels if current selling rates do no more than hold at today’s pace? It might take the better part of a year, if sales don’t go any lower. No one can guarantee that, especially if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. (Unthinkable you say?)

01/12/07: Look around your neighborhood. Are houses selling quickly, or are they selling at all? Does construction continue, or have projects been discontinued? Has your house appreciated in the last six months, or depreciated? And I haven’t even talked about the negative impact of re-financing, adjustable-rate exotic mortgages, and negative home equity. All in all, not a pretty picture and signs that we’ve just seen the top of the iceberg, not the bottom, as many proclaim. I believe the homebuilding industry will continue to decline, thereby providing the potential for gains in the next several months. That’s how I see it.

4/26/07: Though many people will insist, “it’s different this time,” keep in mind that every great market that has grown in debt has always ended badly, whether it’s the tulip mania of the 1400’s, or the dot.com mania of 2000, it never changes. Major stock market declines will be the rule, not the exception. People continue to ask: When will it happen? The debt contagion is spreading every day, and the decline will come when least expected. We are positioned defensively, and you can feel very comfortable. No matter how much lipstick you put on that bloated debt pig, it’s still a pig.


9/07/2007: The average $500,000 mortgage, when sliced and diced, supports approximately 20 times its value in CDO mortgage paper, sold around the world. When you factor the number of adjustable-rate mortgages that are re-setting over the next 16 months, (March alone is $110 billion), by a multiple of 20, you get some very scary indebtedness. Keep in mind, this indebtedness is dependent on rising home values and people’s ability to pay; both of which have now been called into question. Factor in the declining job picture, and you may have a recipe for disaster.

9/27/2007: In the 1980’s, the Japanese lowered interest rates to zero. That action did not save the Japanese stock market, nor did it save the Japanese real estate market. In fact, it’s just most recently that they’ve finally dug out. The difference this time is that the financial world is all interdependent on trillions of dollars of debt. From the smallest homeowner to the biggest money center bank, our economy has borrowed its way to happiness. Unfortunately, that game is over and the pain is about to begin. The countdown to meltdown has begun.

12/18/07: My prediction for 2008. A year of incredible volatility, possible homebuilder bankruptcies, the threat of banking sector meltdowns, and the chance of general panic never seen by today’s investing public, or even by the professionals. Downside swings of as much as 20% from here, and the possibilities of double digit relief rallies. But make no mistake, this is a BEAR MARKET.

So what happens now? More of the same, with the bias to the downside. But for the nimble traders, a paradise of opportunity.

Right now, I’m long, and no, I’m not wrong. (A poetic attempt.)

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. – Long GE, QLD, UYM, FNFG, DDM, FCX (at least for now.) Shorts: none

P.P.S. – If interested, a complete email journal is available upon request.

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Monday, October 13, 2008

The Third TV

As I recently wrote, the world finally got fed up with the incompetence of the United States leadership of Paulson, Bernanke, Cox, Bush, and our Congress. Therefore, the world has moved forward with a plan to unfreeze credit markets. Make no mistake, these efforts will be successful. Unfortunately, that is the smaller of the two problems. Just because you have the ability to lend does not mean that you will lend. In addition, the lending horizon has changed because many borrowers will no longer have access to easy credit and that is the rub.

The entire problem is predicated on Joe Smith buying his third TV. Not the first, not the second, the third TV. Consider this example: Because Joe wants his third TV, an extra salesperson has to be employed at BestBuy ($25.75 as of 10-10-08), and another store has to be built by BestBuy to house the extra employee. An additional truck has to be used to deliver the third TV to BestBuy. An additional dock worker has to be hired to bring in the extra TV, which was delivered by the extra ship, which was leased to bring in the third TV. In addition, another factory had to be built in China to make the third TV, and another worker at Corning ($12.37 as of 10-10-08) had to be employed to make the glass to send to the factory, to install in the TV, to put on the ship, to put on the dock, to put on the truck, to deliver to the store, to give to the person, to sell to Joe Smith, who wants the third TV. You get the idea. In addition, a clothing store, a dry cleaner, a restaurant, a grocery store, a movie theater, and a shopping plaza, all spring up for the people who serve the man who wants to buy the third TV. All is well as long as Joe Smith can, and will be able to buy, the third TV. God help us if can’t buy the third TV, or if he won’t buy the third TV.

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. – Long the banks: UYG (large banks), NYB and FNFG (regionals.) Why not. The problem is solved, right?

Friday, October 3, 2008

Mr. Smith (Paulson) goes to Washington

(He ain’t no Jimmy Stewart)

It doesn’t matter. Politics is politics, and a bear market is a bear market. I would use this opportunity to step out of your longs, and think about re-loading on the short-side. Take what they give you.


Till next time,

Bill

P.S – FYI, some of the items included in the bailout legislation: $192 million for the rum producers of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; $128 million for car-racing tracks, $33 million for corporations in American Samoa, and $10 million for small film and television productions. In addition, the bill authorizes a Wool Trust Fund and additional financial relief as part of the Exxon Valdez oil spill that happened 20 years ago. Wow!

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

A Triple Feature

Fear and Panic
A Market of Stocks
Opportunities Galore


This is a re-visit to an email written on April 18, 2005.
Oh, for the days of the triple feature, usually found at the local drive-in movie theater. You remember those days don’t you? For some of you the drive-in is just a distant memory (why is there a Cheshire cat grin on your face, you rascal you.) For others, drive-in movies are just a piece of Americana.

It would seem we are embracing a triple feature when it comes to the current market.

First feature: Fear and Panic, starring Jack Misunderstanding, Farah Follow-along, and that ever loving villain, the dastardly Alan Greenspan. The theme of this movie is that interest rates are being taken higher by the Federal Reserve to theoretically slow down the economy and inflation. However, the evil Greenspan is inadvertently being helped by our hero, Jack Misunderstanding, who hasn’t observed that the ten- year treasury rate has been falling, not rising, which leads one to believe that the economy is slowing, thus more aggressive tactics by the evil Greenspan will not be necessary. Jack Misunderstanding also hasn’t noticed that oil prices have fallen, long treasury rates are fallen, and there really is nothing to fear. Fortunately, our hero gets the drift, and thwarts the evil Greenspan. He is knighted Sir Jack Understanding. Our heroine, Farah Follow-along, takes Jack’s lead, and too, defeats fear and panic. Jack and Farah lead all the townspeople away from fear and panic, and Jack and Farah ride off into the sunset. Editor’s Note: Frank Fear and Pauly Panic were last seen doing a Vaudeville act at a Holiday Inn in Akron, Ohio. Get your popcorn and your milk duds, here comes the second feature.

A short instructional film, A Market of Stocks, starring top performers Gil Goldman Sachs ($120.70 as of 9-29-08), Sandra Citigroup ($17.75 as of 9-29-08), and Lyle AIG ($2.50 as of 9-29-08), and an ensemble of some of the brightest stars in the market. The theme of the second feature is to understand that for years, another actor, Sid Market, has given mediocre performances, overshadowing individual breathtaking achievements, almost on an Academy Award Level. To name just a few: Sashi Icici Bank ($21.83 as of 9-29-08), Norville Nextel ($$6.10 as of 9-29-08), and the ever popular Uma Altria ($19.35 as of 9-29-08). But talent must be found when it’s at the beginning of its acting career, and not at the end. We want the stars and starlets to shine brilliantly on their own, without being in the limelight of Sid Market, who unfortunately gives poor performances like his swooning death act. It’s a short film, but gives food for thought. Speaking of food:

Make sure you’ve gone to the snack bar for hotdogs, fries, shakes, and whatever else suits your fancy. It’s now time for the main feature. It’s time to steam the windows with our sexy, provocative OPPORTUNITIES GALORE. I’ll let you in on a little secret. This is really just a sequel to the first feature, Fear and Panic. OPPORTUNITIES GALORE stars that swashbuckling hero Bobby Buy-em-right, Bonita Bargain-prices, and the veteran actor Pappy Patience. The movie opens with Bobby Buy-em-right holding Bonita Bargain-prices in his arms whispering “I know we’ll make it out there, Bonita.” Yes, we weeeeellllll, Bobby” says Bonita. (She’s southern) “But not just make it Bonita. We are going to make it big, real big.” “But how do you know, Bobby?”, whispers Bonita. “Because I’ve heard from my wise old mentor, Pappy Patience.” The next ninety minutes is just whys and wherefores, with a lot of Pappy Patience pontification, and some good common sense. Time to steam the car windows. Fast forward to the finale. As the credits roll, and the music swells, we see Bobby Buy-em-right and Bonita Bargain-prices walking hand-in-hand into the sunset knowing that Bobby and Bonita together have the best of all possibilities. Another happy ending. Don’t you just love the power of movies?

Fast forward to today (9-30-08), and despite what the pundits are saying, it’s still not the time to buy. This bear market could still have a long way to go. Yesterday, we witnessed drama fit for the big screen. Just another scene, but certainly not the final act.

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Waiving the Flag

The Democratic system works. Wall Street and the halls of Washington thought, and continue to think, that the American public is stupid. The overwhelming phone calls, emails, and letters to Congress, were vindicated today. The so-called bailout plan was voted down today in Congress. Does that mean that it can’t change tomorrow? Not on your life, never trust a politician.

However, I cheer. I was 100% against this bailout bill. I’ve watched the FDIC facilitate the largest thrift in the United States move seamlessly to JP Morgan. I’ve watched Wachovia move to Citigroup. I’ve watched the Europeans nationalize two banks, and scoff at what we were doing in our country.

There are other ways solve our current crisis without putting our money at risk. If you do the math, there is no way, no way, the American taxpayer can either make money or be made whole in the future. Gross, Buffet, Welch, are great men, but should have been in my math class. The amount of homes that were built at the peak, are still around. Many of them are empty. The purchasers for those homes are gone. No more sub-prime mortgages, no more alt-a, and no more flippers. It’s simple math. There were homes built for those kinds of individuals. They don’t exist any longer, but the homes still do. Therefore, the outcome of today’s vote was a no-brain situation for the taxpayer.

Don’t give me that garbage about not being able to meet your payroll. A good banking relationship is not going to let a small business or a large business default on their payrolls. If they do, then that’s the height of greed. They may be dumb, but they not stupid.

Today, I covered some of my short positions because you never know what can happen in Washington. I waved the flag. I think it was a great day.

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Friday, September 26, 2008

TGIF

Let me get this straight. The greatest banking collapse in history is the secondary story on the CNBC news ticker. Washington Mutual depositors went to sleep last night feeling a little anxious about their savings, and this morning wake up to find all is well, and they are now doing business with JP Morgan. A seamless transition. Where was the Armageddon?

The $700 billion dollar giveaway program so sharply opposed by Main Street, and so widely embraced by Wall Street is on the ropes, thank goodness. Make no mistake, the banks have money, they just aren’t willing to lend, and that problem dictates a different solution, and there are other solutions. Those other solutions will be found sooner rather than later. After all the events of yesterday, the media is conspicuously not discussing Bill Gross’s (Pimco CEO) most recent statement on the bailout bill. Pimco buys more treasury paper than any other company in the world; therefore, he is the man to be listened to. He also benefited corporately and personally by the Fannie and Freddie takeover (several billion dollars), but that’s another story.

Beyond the $700 billion rescue (giveaway plan), Gross said the banking system, and the investment banking system in total, really requires about $500 billion more. Where that comes from, it’s still up in the air. Why isn’t anyone talking about that?

Today is an opportunity to take some shorts off the table. Specifically, financials. Because when the deal is done, probably over the weekend, a huge, and I mean huge relief rally could ensue. There will be time to re-load the shorts. Why? Because the economy, earnings, and the consumer will be back in the cross-hairs. This could be ugly.

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Sickening

As I observed Paulson, Bernanke and Cox at the Senate banking crisis hearing, I’m watching them fold. Four questions among many:

1) A Senator asked about valuing the underlying mortgages as a future-value based upon cash-flow, as all bonds are normally valued. Paulson’s answer: “Senator, it’s not that simple.” However, it is that simple.

2) Paulson says were going to bring in the best and the brightest people to re-price all of the mortgages that are sitting on the balance sheets of the banks. Ostensibly, the best and the brightest got us into this mess to begin with. Didn’t Wall Street, who created this problem, have the best and the brightest? Where is he going to get these new best and brightest people?

3) Chuck Schumer asked: “Could you accept $150 billion, as opposed to $700 billion, solve some of the problems, see if it works, then come back and ask for more.” Paulson’s answer: “Senator, you have to make your decision. It’s $700 billion, or it’s nothing.” Schumer: “You’re telling me that we can’t see if it works?” Paulson: “It’s $700 billion or nothing.”

4) Both Bernanke and Paulson, asked directly by the Senator from Pennsylvania: “Does Wall Street owe Main Street an apology?” Bernanke could not answer the question, nor could Paulson. They would not say yes.

For the first time in as long as I can remember, I’m proud of Senators who are finally asking tough questions. I’m continued to be amazed by the response of the executive branch, specifically Bernanke and Paulson. Pride on the one hand, and shame on the other hand.

My indignation is unbelievable. Any American who is watching this should be shocked and appalled.


Till next time,

Bill

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

What's Changed?

Friday morning when I wrote “the rules have changed,” I was stunned by the brute force used by Paulson and Bernanke to exert their will over the market. I responded like many to what I deemed to be an unstoppable freight train of pure executive branch power. The rules changed. Billions dispersed. The greatest short-squeeze in history, and two men in decisive control. Was this Wall Street style Martial law, or was this the re-visitation to when Ronald Regan was shot, and former Secretary of State Alexander Haig said to the press: “I’m in control.”

Make no mistake, we enter a period of history which is a watershed moment, but for reasons other than the obvious. The piece of legislation being proposed has a section tucked away that says “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act, are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

This puts the Treasury’s action beyond the rule of law. This is a financial coup with no financial limitations. The proposal gave the Treasury the authority to buy toxic mortgage paper. However, as with all government plans, others wanted to benefit, and so the lobbyist went to work. House and Senate versions written overnight now include language broadening the type of assets for sale under the plan from “mortgage-related” to “troubled assets.” Hello auto finance companies, student loan lenders, and credit card lenders. Why doesn’t the government just buy everything? Right, comrade?

I thought that the plan, though totally contrary to my beliefs, would carry the market dramatically higher over the next several weeks, and it’s still possible. Let’s be clear. In the short-term, that’s minute-by-minute, the uncertainty is so great that large pools of guaranteed cash and assets non-correlated to the market maybe the order of the day. Doing nothing isn’t bad.

My macro-trend belief still tells me that the trouble continues to work ahead, and the long-term fundamentals and long-term technical’s are so bad that the best play for stock market money is a negative bias, with some upside hedge. The uncertainty of the government’s uncertainty IS the uncertainty.

Regardless of my opinion, my job to like or not to like doesn’t matter. My job is to make money, and protect assets, and that is a job that I will continue to do twenty-four hours a day, and seven days a week.

Till next time,

Bill

P.S. – Long EEV, MZZ, SDP, SKF, and SPY.


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Friday, September 19, 2008

The Rules Have Changed

Last night the NFL changed the rules for this weekend's football games. They banned passing. It has created a complete turmoil, offensive coordinators don’t know what to do , quarterback coaches have been fired, because after all you don’t have to teach a quarterback how to hand off. Isn’t that absurd?

That’s as absurd as what happened in the late night massacre engineered by Bernanke, Paulson, Cox, and the rest of the Washington politicians, banning short selling of financial stocks until October 2nd, when all they had to do was enforce the naked short selling rules and re-implement the uptick rule. But that’s common sense and common sense doesn’t rule today.

But it is what it is. What does this action and also the RTC-like bailout mean for the market and does it have legs? Absolutely. No longer can the banks lose. No longer can municipalities lose. No longer can Money Markets lose. No longer can homeowners lose. It all adds up to a legislative bottoming for the stock market.

Do I agree with it? No. But my opinion doesn’t count when there are 3:00 meetings planning for the Washington takeover of Wall Street. Good luck Comrade.

I am a macro long term player. I have been long term short for the last 2 years. In addition I have kept large pools of cash on the sidelines. Today, a watershed moment in American History. I went long the S&P, the Dow, the Financials and increased my position in the municipal bond market.

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Twilight of Illusion

Mark Twain once said: “Don’t part with your illusions; when they are gone, you may still exist, but you have ceased to live.” First it was Bear Stearns, then Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, then AIG, and now the world, as we infuse billions of our dollars into foreign central banks. A bailout of the world? You be the judge. However, CNBC is playing this last Fed game as though it was the second coming of Christ. I don’t think it’s on quite the same level.

The only question one has to ask: Is this a bear market or a bull market? If, as I believe, it is a bear market, then all, and I mean all stocks will go down. Surprise Mr. Kass, surprise Mr. Kudlow, Mr. Paulson, and Mr. Bernanke. Yes, all stocks will go down. That doesn’t mean a bullet manufacturer in a war won’t have success, however, one’s long-term view should be negative and on the short-side, if in fact the bear market continues to exist.

The illusion that long-term always produces good things is just that, an illusion. That doesn’t mean that short-term trading opportunities don’t exist on the upside for the nimble and the fleet of foot, they do. But when the media, the pundits, and the politicians attempt to make lemonade from lemons, pushing the market ever higher, your best bet is to reload, and short, short, short.

Many years ago, when traveling on long trips with my young children they would ask the inevitable: “Are we there yet, are we there yet?” These days, I’m hearing a similar question from the CNBC all-stars: “Are we at the bottom, are we at the bottom?” Just like I told my kids at the time: We still have a long way to go.

Till next time,

Bill


P.S. – Looking to re-load on QID, and EEV. Still long SKF and SRS. Also, the gold that I purchased in the accounts during the Russian-Georgia confrontation is looking pretty fortuitous. Any slowdown, and I’ll ring the bell, and take the profit.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Not Enough Blood

A week ago, I told you the pundits (Kass and Cramer) were telling you to buy the financial stocks: Buy, buy, buy! Unfortunately, their spell check was not working properly, and what they meant to say was: Bye, bye, bye!

If you listened to K & C, you would have found yourself on the Sirens island, abandoning all hope. Now, K& C, and many others, are calling this a buying opportunity. Are you kidding me? The technical charts are broken, and the fundamentals are devastating. Usually, blood in the streets called for contrarian action, and buying would be in order. However, the breaking of the technical charts is only the continuation of the bear market. The fundamentals, though, extremely atrocious, portend more to come. For example, further housing declines, further foreclosures, credit card defaults, auto company bailouts (maybe), and on and on.

As Karen Carpenter once said: “It’s only just begun.”

Strategy: Take profits in short positions such as financials, NASDAQ, S& P 500, and Dow, only to make paper profits real profits. Ring the bell.

However, do not, and I repeat, do not go long anything. Be ready to re-load and short again. I will advise.

Till next time,

Bill


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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Are You Kidding Me?

No, I’m not talking about the bailout of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. I’m talking about the main reason Paulson gave for the bailout. He talked about the lack of capital, the accounting uncertainty, the quasi-government status and the prudent mortgage purchases. But his main reason for the bailout was “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of these would cause great turmoil in the financial markets here at home and around the globe. This turmoil would directly and negatively impact household wealth from family budgets to home values to savings for college and retirement. A failure would affect the ability of Americans to get home loans, auto loans, and other consumer credit and business finance, and a failure would be harmful to economic growth and job creation.”

Are you kidding me?!?

I’m sorry I didn’t record his last speech on the Bear Stearns bailout because it was the exact same speech. Who’s next? Detroit’s in line. GM, Ford and Chrysler all with their hands out. And what about the banks who are all holding the auto loan paper? They probably could use a little bailout. After all, there are more auto owners than home owners. Isn’t there a systemic risk when their debt paper collapses. Of course most average Suzy and Joe own only one house, probably two cars, or maybe three ( one an SUV) but there is no question they all have multiple credit cards. When the credit card market collapses is Paulson or Bernanke going to ride to the rescue of the credit card companies such as CitiBank and American Express? Won’t that be a major systemic problem? Wait a minute…there will be a new administration and just possibly these two jokers will be off fishing someplace. Which begs the question, if as Bernanke and Paulson said just weeks ago that the Fannie and Freddie problems were under control, of course they also said that about housing, why the bailout now? Obviously they couldn’t wait to pass it off to the next administration.

The Titanic was sinking and was not going to reach port.

How will the market and pundits react? I believe the initial reaction will be extremely positive. We may see a big stock market rally, most certainly prime time praise and accolades and maybe even Knighthood or Sainthood for Hank and Ben. However, when the smoke clears and the dust settles the same old problems of too much leverage, over extension and consumer exhaustion will once again be front and center.

All that has happened is that the inevitable has been postponed.

No kidding.

Till next time,

Bill

Ps: Fade the Euphoria

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

The Sirens (Kass and Cramer)

Ulysses had to be strapped to the mast for his own protection. As he passed by the isle, the song of the Sirens wafted in his ears. “Come ashore” they called; “pleasure and safety can be found in our arms.” Ulysses knew the truth, but only strong bindings kept him from venturing forth into destruction. So it is with financials. As the winds of destruction blow over the market, we hear Kass, Cramer, and a host of others saying: “The financials, the financials, the financials.” As the Sirens call was soothing and seductive, so is the call of the celebrities. Don’t be seduced, for trouble is surely ahead. Ulysses recognized it. So should you.

Till next time,

Bill

Long: SKF

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Yes, We Have No Bananas

As everybody’s attention has turned toward hurricanes, oil, Obama, and McCain’s surprise (Sarah Palin); my thoughts have been focused on the 800-pound gorillas.

After the dot-com crash of 2000 to 2002, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to the unbelievable level of 1%, in order to stimulate a rather moribund economy. It worked. In fact, it worked so well that the next bubble was born: housing. Housing became the 800-pound gorilla that affected every nook and cranny of our economic lives. For example, employment was directly tied to housing. That included everyone working at the big home improvement boxes, to the landscapers, and all the way to the mortgage lenders. Travel, education, and autos were also tied to housing. If you wanted to take a vacation, send the kids to school, and buy a new SUV, simple. Just take out a home equity loan. After all, home prices were going through the roof!

The economists, the pundits, even the TV talking heads (all experts, of course) said housing was the 800-pound gorilla. Then a funny thing happened on the way to the zoo. The 800-pound gorilla turned into a 75-pound chimpanzee. As housing prices collapsed, foreclosures rose, and mortgage lenders filed for bankruptcy, the experts said it mattered, but not that much. Housing, they said, was not that special in the overall picture. Excuse me, but how, I ask, for the last three years, can housing be so significant in the market on the way up, but insignificant on the way down? It made absolutely no sense. It sounded like the experts were just monkeying around. (Sorry about that.)

Now, the experts are at it again. Technology had wonderful tailwinds for the past year. Between a falling dollar, and accelerating foreign economies, the technology sector was not only a good place to hide, but also a place that was well rewarded. Both the falling dollar, and the robust foreign economies were the 800-pound gorillas that drove the future of technology. However, the dollar is now rising, and the foreign economies, are at the least, questionable. The tailwinds have turned to substantial headwinds. But the experts say no problem, the future is robust and bright. Once again, in their eyes, an 800-pound gorilla has become a 75- pound chimpanzee. No way!

According to the experts, the driving forces are significant on the way up, but insignificant on the way down.

You can’t have it both ways. The 800-pound gorilla is still the 800-pound gorilla, whether you like it or not. Make due. Buy some bananas!

Till next time,

Bill

Long: QID

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A disclaimer: none of the content published on BillTatro.com constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. None of the information providers or their affiliates will advise you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. To the extent any of the content published as part of BillTatro.com may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.