Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Deflation - Ben Bernanke: "Unusually Uncertain" Bill Tatro: "Very Certain"

Ben Bernanke recently called the economy “unusually uncertain.” KKR cancelled their $500 million IPO, saying market conditions were not favorable. Tim Geithner said raising taxes on the wealthy is justified for the economy. Each of these three items could be discussed for hours, and probably will be. However, collectively, they are indicators which point to an economic environment that has not been seen for many years. It’s called classic deflation, characterized by soaring unemployment, excessive bankruptcies, high taxes, and most important, complete lack of confidence in the system. It is this last item which could be the worst. When people give up on the system, strange things happen. The unemployed stop looking for work and drop out. The employers give up because they’re taxed to death. The consumer stops consuming for lack of money, and those that do have money to spend expect prices to be lower in the future, and likewise stop consuming.

And the stock market you ask? Well, after the dust finally settles, many will ask: “Why didn’t I see it coming?”

Till next time,

Bill


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